TLDR: Insiders outperform buy and hold strategy on their own stock by a median of 159%. Hi everyone, As some of you may know, I have what I consider to be one of the most comprehensive insider trading filing databases out there, stored locally in a SQLITE database on my laptop. This evening, I’ve been working on long term strategies to play with with the alerts. Why? It’s much easier to trade then trying to day trade everything every day. So i wrote some code tonight to do the following: Portfolio Simulation (Two Strategies Compared): Strategy 1 – Buy & Hold Benchmark: Invest $1,000 at the start of the time period Hold until present day Calculate total return Strategy 2 – Insider Following: Start with $1,000 invested in the stock For each insider purchase filing, invest additional amount = $1,000 × (D ratio + I ratio) Execute purchases on market open the day after filing date Account for weekends/holidays by finding next available trading day Track total capital deployed and final portfolio value Key Metrics: Outperformance = Insider Strategy Return – Buy & Hold Return Total capital invested in insider strategy Number of insider purchases followed Win rate across all analyzed tickers Time Period: Start: 180 days before first insider purchase End: Present day (allowing for 2 business day lag) This tests whether systematically following insider purchases generates alpha over simple buy-and-hold, while accounting for the additional capital required and transaction timing delays. Additionally, this backtesting strategy looks at CONVICTION through increase in portfolio holdings, not just raw buying amount. So I’m running it through a couple thousand stocks tonight, and I look at these preliminary results! || || |Ticker|buy_hold_return|insider_return|outperformance|total_invested|num_purchases| |AAM|0.0501|0.070051|0.019951|1180.764|4| |AAOI|1.503929|2.731842|1.227913|1467.481|5| |AAP|-0.56635|8.040243|8.606594|10370.62|26| |AASP|||||| |AB|0.304762|1.885748|1.580986|2348.867|3| |ABCL|-0.92699|-0.18343|0.74357|5679.975|8| |ABCP|||||| |ABIO|0.548387|4.449542|3.901155|4254.495|20| |ABP|-0.97889|-0.61844|0.360455|1394.996|4| |ABR|0.93834|3.230985|2.292644|2714.447|35| |ACA|1.933728|2.760364|0.826636|1680.563|5| |ACCS|0.087179|1.264957|1.177778|2000|1| |ACDC|-0.73727|0.122878|0.860145|2596.619|26| |ACEL|-0.03344|0.050424|0.083869|1071.245|1| |ACGL|1.21736|4.37053|3.15317|2700|3| |ACHR|-0.07071|8.158103|8.22881|4072.935|19| |ACHV|-0.31304|1.000917|1.31396|2164.268|2| |ACIC|5.420555|6.785966|1.365411|2123.976|11| |ACLS|2.724342|2.841743|0.117401|1063.948|5| |ACNT|-0.23657|3.345067|3.58164|4351.834|12| |ACOG|0.414035|1.08654|0.672505|1521.714|4| |ACP|0.174377|1.805157|1.63078|2428.633|2| |ACRE|-0.26026|0.827721|1.087978|2477.601|7| |ACRS|-0.89358|0.723712|1.617292|4450.216|11| |ACT|0.708182|28.15335|27.44517|13250.9|15| |ACTG|0.025|1.796161|1.771161|2886.769|7| |ACUT|||||| |ADBE|-0.22312|1.531135|1.754259|3252.278|6| |ADC|0.778678|5.896134|5.117455|5050.433|18| |ADCT|0.600985|0.669934|0.068948|1063.316|2| |ADMQ|||||| |ADSK|0.076455|1.142607|1.066152|2000|1| |ADV|-0.81885|2.613808|3.432661|7192.703|44| |ADVM|-0.91789|1.33134|2.249226|14755.77|28| |AE|0.137466|15.61507|15.4776|10761.2|59| |AEBI|-0.85389|-0.76803|0.085864|1084.961|2| |AEHR|-0.06466|1.221089|1.28575|1805.739|5| |AEI|-0.9854|-0.52367|0.461731|2193.485|39| |AENT|-0.48531|4.010463|4.495772|3109.667|10| |AEON|-0.97962|-0.19639|0.783235|1536.013|2| |AESI|-0.20638|1.529423|1.735804|3076.486|10| |AEVA|3.993994|4.355458|0.361464|1142.529|2| |AEYE|1.328972|3.150453|1.821481|2736.453|13| |AFB|0.108972|2.260247|2.151275|3225.298|6| |AFCG|-0.6294|0.609171|1.238569|3326.013|16| |AFG|1.329524|2.878513|1.548989|2155.193|5| |AFT|0.541814|1.931668|1.389854|2004.418|4| |AGAE|-0.15299|1.158885|1.311878|2514.026|15| |AGCO|0.005064|0.48713|0.482066|1370.69|2| |AGEN|-0.85035|-0.34743|0.502924|2597.523|2| |AGFY|-0.99919|1.081063|2.080256|5546.32|6| |AGL|-0.95903|-0.07653|0.882506|4591.846|8| |AGM|0.51135|0.52336|0.01201|1009.855|2| |AGR|-0.10709|0.817798|0.924887|3013.593|3| |AGYS|5.839498|6.985658|1.146159|1229.089|13| |AHH|-0.29159|6.418685|6.71027|10476.66|24 | MEDIAN OUTPERFORMANCE: 159% (Insider following return – buy and hold retun) Fascinating! Insiders at least for this first 80 filings are CRUSHING their individual stock returns. As always, this is just backtest, and is often flawed. Really interested to see how this continues to develop. More posts to come!
Summarize With AI
ChatGPT
Perplexity AI
Claude AI
Google AI
